News from Jan 05, 2009

TheRegister: Server racket to slow in 2009?

by Timothy Prickett Morgan

With some 2 million-plus physical boxes still being shipped every quarter on a global basis, the server racket is still a pretty good one. In the first three quarters of 2008, vendors peddled some $40bn in gear, and if you use IDC data as a gauge, they've collectively managed to boost revenues by 3.5 per cent for the year so far. For all intents and purposes, the fourth quarter of 2008 is done in terms of server sales, but we won't know how well or how poorly vendors performed in Q4 for a few months yet. It takes time to dice and slice the numbers.

A lot will depend on what gear was already in the budget for an upgrade and what gear can be put on hold for one, two, or maybe three quarters until the global economy improves. Just to break even for the year and bring in $54.4bn in server revenues for 2008, the fourth quarter can decline by more than 8 per cent to $14.4bn. That would more or less match server sales levels in the fourth quarter of 2005, when just under 2 million units went out the door.

In last year's fourth quarter, vendors boosted shipments by 9 per cent, pushing sales up 2.4 per cent to $15.7bn. Windows and Linux were the big drivers for growth in 2007, helping to push sales up by 3.6 per cent to that $54.4bn - the highest levels the server market has seen for a year since 2001 - with shipments up 6.7 per cent to 8 million units. However, it is helpful to remember that this is still well off the peak for the server biz, which was 2000, when the world shelled out $61.6bn thanks to the dot-com, Y2K, and ERP booms.

TheRegister: Don't shout at your disk drives, warns Sun engineer

by Lester Haines

Those among you who are prone to vocal outbursts of rage at cantankerous kit should be aware that hardware has feelings too, and directing your ire at disk drives can provoke "unusually high disk I/O latency".

That's according to Sun's Fishworks engineer Brendan Gregg, who explains just how to upset your drive on his blog and with the obligatory YouTube vid

So there you have it - be nice to your drives and restrict verbal assaults to monitors which, as we all know, are specifically designed to shrug off abuse

CNet: VCs' focus on revenue could benefit open source

by Matt Asay

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, The New York Times reports that Silicon Valley venture capitalists actually care about revenue again.

After years of investing in Web 2.0 companies that generate eyeballs and weird brands but little revenue, VCs have decided that businesses that actually make money are a priority:
For Web sites that do not already have large audiences, "your business model may be just as plausible as it was 18 months ago, but we're all more cautious about giving you a slug of money," (Accel partner Theresia Gouw Ranzetta) said.

Instead, investors are looking for sites that make money in ways other than selling ads, like selling subscriptions or virtual goods. Selling 50 cent costumes for online avatars might not seem to be much of a revenue model, but pennies add up.

This emphasis should actually benefit companies with open-source models, which have seen investments taper off somewhat in the past few quarters.

Given that open source went through its own investment silly season years ago, back when it was fine to have downloads without corresponding dollars, it may make a safer investment for cautious VCs today. A wide array of open-source companies are making solid revenues in the $10 million to $50 million range, either reaching or approaching profitability.

InfoWorld: The 7 worst tech predictions of all time

by Robert Strohmeyer

Predicting the future ain't easy. That's why astrologers and fortune tellers tend to keep their forecasts as vague as possible. But in the high-stakes world of high technology, the future belongs to those who see it coming well in advance.

Of course, even the most successful tech prognosticators make their share of foolish predictions, multiplying the candidates for inclusion in this article. In any case, here are a few of my favorite forward-looking flubs of the past 65 years.

Foolish tech prediction 1
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."-Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

Foolish tech prediction 2
"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."-Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946

Foolish tech prediction 3
"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years."-Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955

Foolish tech prediction 4
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."-Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

Foolish tech prediction 5
"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."-Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995

Foolish tech prediction 6
"Apple is already dead."-Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997

Foolish tech prediction 7
"Two years from now, spam will be solved."-Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004